Whenever chip stocks come up, we end up looking at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix side by side. Both are earning more thanks to HBM, yet their share prices have slid together since September.
Let's go through how the two stocks have moved since their September highs, step by step.
✦ How Far They Fell From the Peak
Korea Exchange closing prices, as of October 8
Based on Korea Exchange closing prices, Samsung Electronics climbed to KRW 285,500 on September 23 and came back down to KRW 262,000 on October 8. That is about 8.2% below its peak.
SK Hynix peaked at KRW 1,868,000 on September 21 and fell about 10.0% to KRW 1,681,000 on October 8.
The KOSPI fell 6.4% from 7,080.92 on September 23, Samsung's peak day, to 6,625.93, and 5.4% from 7,007.72 on September 21, SK Hynix's peak day, so both stocks were swept along by the whole market.
✦ Same Stocks, Different Starting Date
Changes through the October 8 close
But line the dates up from September 1 and the story changes a little. Samsung Electronics is almost unchanged, KRW 261,000 on September 1 versus KRW 262,000 on October 8. SK Hynix slipped only 0.7%, from KRW 1,693,000 to KRW 1,681,000.
So the claim that SK Hynix fell more than Samsung is about the drop from the peak. Measured from the same date, the gap is not large.
✦ One Month Across Five Indexes
Seoul Economic Daily tally
What stands out is that only the Korean market was weak. US and Taiwan stocks hit record highs this month, while the KOSPI never managed to recover.
According to Seoul Economic Daily's tally, over the past month the KOSPI fell 4.72%, while Taiwan's TAIEX rose 10.35%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 6.09%, the Nasdaq rose 4.23%, and the S&P 500 rose 1.67%.
The KOSPI set its record close of 9,114.55 on June 22, then slid to the 5,000 range in late July and climbed back above 7,000, but it looks stuck in a box range now.
✦ Foreign Net Selling, Month by Month
Main KOSPI market, Seoul Economic Daily tally
Seoul Economic Daily pointed to two reasons for this gap. The first is the heavy concentration in memory chips.
Large memory stocks like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix weigh heavily on the index, so when worries grow that memory prices and profit growth are near a peak, the whole market tends to shake.
Taiwan has beneficiaries across the whole AI supply chain, from chip design and contract manufacturing to packaging, networking, and servers, so the benefits spread to many places, while Korea leans heavily on the memory cycle. That is the reading.
The second is foreign selling.
Foreign investors net sold KRW 48.6 trillion on the main KOSPI market in June, KRW 9.9 trillion in July, KRW 10.2 trillion in August, and KRW 21.5 trillion in September, and sold another KRW 6.4 trillion from October 1 to 8, bringing cumulative net selling since June to about KRW 96.6 trillion.
The selling was concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and individual investors, who had net bought KRW 42.4 trillion in June, turned to net selling of KRW 14.2 trillion in September.
Lee Jae-won, an analyst at Yuanta Securities, read the recent foreign exit from chip stocks less as an industry slowdown and more as the effect of a higher discount applied to the Korean market in a high-rate, high-oil-price environment and weaker foreign risk appetite.
Since damage to the industry looks limited, the analyst said attention should go to the chance that money flows normalize after interest rates normalize and Samsung's earnings are confirmed.
✦ Three Flow Events on October 8
Goldman Sachs report, October 6
So why did they shake together? The first reason is supply and demand in the market.
In its October 6 report titled 'What to Watch for Samsung Electronics Ahead of October 8,' Goldman Sachs's FICC and equities division pointed out that several flow events would pile up on that single day.
According to Segye Ilbo, seven chip ETFs with about KRW 19 trillion in assets under management were set to rebalance that day, and options expired the same day.
As some ETF weightings of Samsung Electronics neared their caps, the analysis was that mechanical selling could come out.
On top of that, with the KRW 15 trillion share buyback entering its final stage, the buying demand the company itself had been providing could shrink too.
The second reason is interest rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.28% on October 7 and 5.22% on October 8. When yields are high, fewer people want to pay a high price for stocks, as a rule.
Chip stocks are priced on the big profits expected ahead, so they tend to react more sensitively in this kind of environment.
✦ Samsung Electronics Q3 Preliminary Results
Announced October 8, 2026
The third is the earnings release itself. Samsung Electronics reported preliminary results on October 8.
Revenue was KRW 195 trillion and operating profit was KRW 107.4 trillion, so quarterly operating profit passed KRW 100 trillion, with an operating margin of 55.1%. The numbers look good, yet the stock fell 2.42% from the previous day.
The domestic market forecast was around KRW 105.5 trillion in operating profit, but Visible Alpha, an overseas aggregator, expected KRW 112.73 trillion. Investopedia reported that, on that basis, the preliminary results fell short of expectations.
Depending on where expectations were set, the same number was read differently.
In the same report, Goldman Sachs said it cut its Samsung Electronics third-quarter operating profit estimate from KRW 112 trillion to KRW 106 trillion, reflecting the fact that the won-dollar rate averaged KRW 1,418 in the third quarter, lower than the KRW 1,460 expected.
That lowered forecast may also have weighed on the stock.
✦ HBM News Timeline
March to October 2026
So why didn't the HBM news help the stocks? Both companies had solid HBM catalysts, after all.
On March 18, Samsung Electronics announced it would deepen its cooperation with AMD and was named a priority supplier of the HBM4 going into AMD's MI455X AI accelerator.
On September 23, SK Hynix showed its 36GB 12-high HBM4 product, which goes into Nvidia's Vera Rubin, and a 96GB SOCAMM2 at the TSMC OIP conference in Santa Clara, and it disclosed this in its newsroom on September 28.
TrendForce, a research firm, projected on September 29 that the average selling price of HBM in 2027 will rise 121% from 2026.
On October 7, AMD Chair Lisa Su came to Seoul and met with Samsung Electronics executives, including DS Division head Jun Young-hyun, for about three hours at the Seocho building.
Lisa Su called Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix 'very important supply chain partners for AMD' and said she expects the HBM cooperation to continue across multiple generations, not just one.
It is ironic that both stocks fell together even with so much good news pouring in.
✦ Brokerage Price Targets
In order of date
We also checked the brokerage price targets.
Chae Min-sook of Korea Investment & Securities set a Samsung Electronics target price of KRW 650,000 on July 31, and Baek Gil-hyeon of Yuanta Securities raised the target to KRW 630,000 on September 23 while keeping a buy rating.
Lee Min-hee of BNK Investment & Securities cut the rating from buy to hold on September 14 and lowered the target price to KRW 270,000. The three-month average Samsung Electronics target price, per FnGuide, is KRW 493,864.
Compared with the current price, that means many brokerages still see room to the upside.
On the SK Hynix side, Ryu Young-ho of NH Investment & Securities kept a KRW 3.4 million target price and a buy rating on September 30.
Lee Su-rim of DS Investment & Securities cut the target price from KRW 3.1 million to KRW 2.64 million on September 29 but left the buy rating as it was. The target went down, but the rating stayed.
The brokerages lowered their short-term flow and earnings estimates, yet they still see the medium- to long-term outlook for the industry as positive.
To sum up, the two companies wobbled together not because HBM expectations broke, but because short-term flow events, interest rate pressure, and an adjustment of expectations around the earnings release all piled up at once.
Korean stocks look likely to keep getting pushed around by AI-related news from here on.
This is not investment advice. You know that, right? Let's protect our precious money ourselves.
Well then, shall we begin today's adventure?
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🌐 한국어 버전: 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스. HBM 최강자들의 주가가 요즘 힘이 없는 이유
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