Why Did Saylor Call a Bull Market?
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) chairman Michael Saylor has declared that the next bitcoin bull market has begun.
In an October 19 interview with Schwab Network, he said bitcoin bounced near its 200-week moving average and called for it to top $100,000 within the next 12 months. Bitcoin closed at about $81,296 on October 28.
To get to $100,000 the way Saylor sees it, bitcoin needs to rise roughly 23% from here. So what's he basing this on?
First, the technical signal Saylor stressed is the 200-week moving average. Bitcoin bounced off this line, which tracks the long-term price trend, and has since risen about $20,000. That's his argument.
Second, the credit market around bitcoin is expanding. Saylor expects banks to offer more bitcoin-backed loans. If holders can borrow without selling their coins, bitcoin becomes more useful.
It's not just retail investors. If institutions can raise funds with bitcoin as collateral, the burden of investing in it gets lighter too.
✦ STRC at a Glance
Strategy's perpetual preferred stock
Quick sidebar: what is STRC? It's a 'perpetual preferred stock' with no maturity date, issued by Strategy. Ordinary preferred stock moves in price like common stock, and in exchange for giving up voting rights, it gets priority on dividends, right?
STRC adds a twist. The dividend rate gets adjusted every month based on the share price, so the price is designed to stay near $100.
So STRC isn't for people chasing price gains. It's for investors who want dividend income. As of October 2026, its annualized dividend rate is 12%. And since it pays cash dividends twice a month, getting regular payouts is kind of fun.
Of course, for Strategy, which pays those dividends, it means cash keeps flowing out. That's why doubts keep coming up about whether Strategy can hold on if bitcoin falls or moves sideways for a long time.
✦ How Digital Credit Is Meant to Absorb Supply
Saylor's logic, step by step
Third, new kinds of financial products, like Digital Credit and tokenized securities, could spark demand for bitcoin. Strategy issues preferred shares like STRC to raise money from investors, then buys bitcoin.
Saylor calls this approach 'Digital Credit.' The idea is to do more than just hold bitcoin: Strategy wants to build financial products on top of the bitcoin it owns. Here's his supply-and-demand logic.
If bitcoin miners add about $1 billion of new supply each month, a company like Strategy can raise money through Digital Credit and soak up that supply. That's the argument.
How Much Bitcoin Does Strategy Hold?
✦ Strategy's Bitcoin Holdings
As of October 25
Strategy raises money in various ways, including selling shares, and has used it to buy bitcoin.
Between October 12 and 18, it did it again. It used $22 million in net proceeds from common stock sales plus $100,000 in cash to buy 267 bitcoin for about $22.1 million.
As a result, as of October 25, Strategy holds 848,517 bitcoin.
Of bitcoin's maximum supply of 21,000,000 BTC, about 20,104,607 BTC has been issued so far, so Strategy's stake is about 4.22% of issued supply. You could call it bitcoin's biggest shareholder.
Total purchase cost is about $64.02 billion, and the average purchase price is $75,446. Apply the October 28 close of $81,296.5 and the holdings are worth about $68.98 billion, roughly $4.96 billion above cost.
If your own average bitcoin purchase price is below $75,446, you bought cheaper than Uncle Saylor. Hehe♡
✦ BTC vs. MSTR: Same Window, Bigger Swings
Relative index, Oct 8 = 100
Those figures show how sensitively Strategy's asset value responds when bitcoin moves.
Assume Strategy keeps holding the same amount. If bitcoin hits $100,000, its holdings would be worth about $84.85 billion. That's about $15.87 billion more than now.
That's why, during the bitcoin bull market of 2025, plenty of people traded Strategy stock as a kind of 'bitcoin leverage product.'
When bitcoin rose, Strategy's stock often rose even more, and when bitcoin fell, the reverse happened a lot.
Quarterly earnings swing a lot with bitcoin's price too. In its October 5 filing, Strategy estimated third-quarter digital asset gains of $20.91 billion and related deferred tax expense of $1.88 billion.
Accounting profit swings widely depending on how bitcoin is valued.
MSCI Index Review: The Picture Gets Clearer on November 11
✦ MSCI Review Timeline
From new criteria to changes taking effect
Another variable for MSTR is the possibility of being removed from MSCI indexes. On October 15, MSCI finalized new criteria that can remove companies lacking an operating business from its global investable indexes.
First it checks whether a company holds real operating assets. Companies that don't pass face further screening on five financial ratios. Fail four or more of the five and a company can lose its eligibility for the index.
That said, there's a buffer rule. A stock already in the index is only removed if it fails the criteria in both of the last two annual disclosure periods.
MSCI will publish the list of potentially affected stocks on November 11, and changes will take effect at the close on November 30. November 11 is the first checkpoint for whether MSTR is on that list.
If MSTR is actually removed, passive funds tracking MSCI indexes would adjust their holdings, which could bring selling pressure.
Strategy had pushed back, saying MSCI-linked funds hold about 3.1% of its common stock, around 13 million shares, which is less than its average daily trading volume. But removal from an MSCI index isn't just about selling pressure.
It can also affect the market's overall view of the company and its credit.
What Does Wall Street Think MSTR Is Worth?
✦ Wall Street Price Targets for MSTR
October 28 close vs. analyst targets
MSTR closed at $145.16 on October 28. In the analyst opinions compiled from S&P Global data, Monness has a Hold rating and the rest have Buy or Outperform. The gap between price targets is big.
Monness set a $100 target with a Hold rating, while StoneX set $435.
If bitcoin reaches $100,000 as Saylor predicts, the value of Strategy's bitcoin holdings would rise by about $15.87 billion from now. That jump in asset value is the core of the MSTR bull case.
Of course, MSTR is a company, not a cryptocurrency, so besides bitcoin's price it's affected by the mNAV premium, dilution from share issuance, preferred dividends and debt interest, and whether it gets dropped from MSCI.
✦ Two Dates to Watch
Earnings first, then MSCI
So there are two dates to watch right now. Strategy is due to report Q3 results after the US market closes on October 29, local time, and MSCI will publish its list of potentially affected stocks on November 11. Let's keep an eye on both.
This isn't investment advice. You know that, right? Let's each protect our own hard-earned money.
That's all for this post. See you next time.
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🌐 Korean version: 마이클 세일러 "비트코인 강세장 시작. 1년 내 10만달러 간다!" 스트래티지의 미래는?
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