The hottest topic in the AI industry these days isn't a new model, it's money. Anthropic is preparing to list on the Nasdaq, while OpenAI's losses keep growing as its revenue grows.
Taking Anthropic's launch of its small model Claude Haiku 5.5 on October 7 as the occasion, let's put the two companies' report cards side by side.
The Day Haiku 5.5 Arrived
✦ Haiku 5.5 vs GPT-6 Luna
Small model comparison
Claude Haiku 5.5 is Anthropic's small model that came out on October 7, 2026. For prompts up to 100K tokens it costs $0.10 per million input tokens and $0.50 per million output tokens, which is about 75% cheaper on average than the previous Haiku 4.5.
OpenAI's small model GPT-6 Luna has the same price, so the small-model market has become a fight over performance, not price.
On the Artificial Analysis intelligence index, Haiku 5.5 scored 43 at max effort, ahead of Gemini 3.8 Flash's 41 and GPT-6 Luna's 38. However, to produce that index Haiku 5.5 used about 162,000 output tokens per task, roughly 3 times Luna's 50,000.
If it uses more tokens to do the same job, that means the cost goes up too. And you should also know that when a prompt goes over 100K tokens, the whole request is billed at $0.50 for input and $2.50 for output, so the unit price jumps exactly 5 times.
✦ Haiku 5.5 Price by Prompt Length
Per 1M tokens, applied to the whole request
Here comes a usage tip. When you talk with an AI, everything said earlier is sent back in the prompt every time.
If you drag one session out and the prompt passes 100K, then unless the conversation history shrinks, every request after that is billed at the 5x price.
So to use Haiku 5.5 efficiently, it would be better to split work into short sessions, and when it gets long, summarize the key points and continue in a new session.
Another way would be to use a smart model like Sonnet 5.5 and instruct it, "Call Haiku 5.5 only for simple tasks that run on short prompts."
OpenAI: The More Revenue, the Bigger the Loss
✦ OpenAI Quarterly Results, 2026
Based on reports; the first-half row is the two quarters added together
Let's start with OpenAI's results this year. According to reports, first-quarter revenue was $5.7 billion and the operating loss was $9.3 billion, with $3.7 billion of cash going out.
Second-quarter revenue was $6.7 billion, up 18% from the first quarter, but the operating loss grew to $12.3 billion. Add the two quarters and first-half revenue is about $12.4 billion and the operating loss is about $21.6 billion.
The WSJ reported that, compared with Anthropic, this second-quarter result shows tepid growth.
What stands out even more is that the first-quarter adjusted operating margin was minus 122%. Even after leaving out some items like stock-based compensation, it means the company lost $1.22 to bring in $1 of revenue.
A document reported for full-year 2025 showed revenue of about $13.07 billion and an operating loss of about $20.9 billion, so the bigger it gets, the bigger the loss gets along with it.
✦ OpenAI Cash Burn Forecast
OpenAI's own forecast
The road ahead is even worse. By OpenAI's own forecast, cash burn reaches about $25 billion in 2026 and about $57 billion in 2027. Pretty serious, right? (I'm using free ChatGPT happily, so I'm a little worried. OpenAI can't go under~ ahem...)
Anthropic Is Preparing to Go Public
✦ Anthropic IPO Reports, in Order
Timeline
Anthropic said itself that it confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC on June 1. Reports said the exchange is the Nasdaq, and on September 18 the WSJ said the listing would come in November rather than October.
In its October 1 report, Bloomberg said Anthropic plans to hold a preliminary investor meeting in San Francisco on October 14 and is aiming to list in mid-November.
There were reports of a target valuation of about $2 trillion and a raise of up to $100 billion.
✦ Anthropic Financials
Based on Reuters' report on the draft S-1
The financial figures came from Reuters' September 28 report on the draft S-1 it obtained. 2025 revenue was about $4.6 billion, up nearly 12-fold in a year, and the operating loss was over $8 billion.
The net loss was about $42 billion, of which about $34 billion was a paper cost booked as the value of financial instruments that could later turn into shares went up, so it isn't money actually spent.
Another point worth noting is that it plans to spend about $518 billion on cloud and computing infrastructure over the coming years. There was also a report in August that annualized revenue topped $65 billion as of the end of July.
✦ Anthropic vs OpenAI
Last private valuation and IPO status
Roughly comparing the two companies' valuations, Anthropic is at $965 billion, set when it raised $65 billion in its May Series H, and OpenAI is at $852 billion.
Anthropic is pushing ahead with a listing this year, while OpenAI announced in June that it had confidentially submitted an S-1, yet Sam Altman drew the line in a September 12 interview, saying "not this year." The gist was that going public now would be "an ill-advised moment."
So How Did the Stock Market React?
Since neither company has gone public yet, the market's reaction can be seen in the big tech stocks tied to them. The closing prices below are based on Nasdaq daily data.
When a report came out on October 8 that OpenAI's annualized revenue was closer to $50 billion than $70 billion, the mood was that Microsoft, Nvidia, and Oracle shares lost steam.
However, the two figures differ depending on whether revenue from sales through cloud partners is counted gross or net, so it doesn't mean actual revenue shrank by that much. In other words, news about Anthropic and OpenAI spreads straight to related stocks.
Microsoft (Microsoft Corporation, MSFT, Nasdaq)
✦ Microsoft Stock Price Trend
Daily closing prices, September 9 to October 8, 2026 (Nasdaq, 22 trading days)
High Oct 7 $529.76, Low Sep 16 $490.30
Microsoft is the listed company most deeply entangled with OpenAI. Its October 8, 2026 close was $522.61, up 6.30% from the September 9 close of $491.65.
It has the highest one-month return, but it is also the stock that gets hit first when OpenAI's revenue numbers wobble. The point to watch is that the bigger OpenAI's losses get, the later Microsoft gets its investment back.
Alphabet (Alphabet Inc., GOOGL, Nasdaq)
✦ Alphabet Stock Price Trend
Daily closing prices, September 9 to October 8, 2026 (Nasdaq, 22 trading days)
High Sep 21 $354.97, Low Sep 9 $330.65
Alphabet is known as an investor in Anthropic. Its October 8 close was $348.29, up 5.33% from the September 9 close of $330.65. The investment point cited is that once Anthropic lists, the value of its stake will show.
Conversely, if Anthropic's listing is delayed or valuation hopes fade, those hopes could shrink along with it.
Amazon (Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN, Nasdaq)
✦ Amazon Stock Price Trend
Daily closing prices, September 9 to October 8, 2026 (Nasdaq, 22 trading days)
High Oct 7 $259.92, Low Sep 16 $245.96
Amazon is also an investor in Anthropic. Its October 8 close was $254.06, up just 0.66% from the September 9 close of $252.40, the lowest return of the three. What to watch is how the stock reacts once the listing schedule becomes concrete.
To sum up, Anthropic is knocking on the listing door with explosive revenue growth, while OpenAI is growing its losses and putting its listing off.
The two companies' mismatched report cards are spreading to related stocks like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, so the listing schedule and financial disclosures from here on will be the most important variables.
This is not investment advice. You know that, right? Let's protect our precious money ourselves.
Well then, shall we begin today's adventure?
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